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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Syria crisis: Nato approves Patriots for Turkey

Nato has approved the deployment of Patriot anti-missile batteries along Turkey's border with Syria.
The long-expected move emerged from a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels, and amid growing fears that Syria could use chemical weapons.
Nato's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the ministers had "unanimously expressed grave concerns" about the use of chemical weapons.
Syria has said it would never use such weapons against its own people.
The meeting of the 28-member Western military alliance's foreign ministers in Brussels follows a request from Turkey to boost its defences along the border.
In a statement, Nato said it had "agreed to augment Turkey's air defence capabilities in order to defend the population and territory of Turkey and to contribute to the de-escalation of the crisis along the alliance's border".

Analysis

Nato's deployment of Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to south-eastern Turkey is essentially a gesture of reassurance to Ankara.
Turkey feels threatened by the growing crisis in Syria. Stray Syrian artillery shells have already come across the border on several occasions. Turkey fears that worse could follow.
Patriot is highly capable against both advanced aircraft and ballistic missiles. But Nato will underline that this is to be seen as a defensive deployment only. Patriot has no capacity to deal with stray shell fire.
While Patriot can reach into Syrian airspace, Nato is at pains to stress that this is in no sense a step towards establishing a no-fly zone over Syria. Nonetheless, Nato may also hope that there will be a deterrent effect that may dissuade Syria from operating its aircraft too close to the Turkish frontier.
Recent intelligence assessments have indicated Damascus is contemplating using ballistic missiles, potentially armed with chemical warheads.
Speaking after the meeting, Mr Rasmussen told reporters that the foreign ministers had "unanimously expressed grave concerns" about the reports, saying: "Any such action would be completely unacceptable and a clear breach of international law."
He would not give further details on the deployment, but said it would ensure effective protection of Turkey against any missile attack, whether carrying chemical weapons or not.
Nato officials have previously made clear such a move would be purely defensive.
Rebel gains The BBC's diplomatic correspondent James Robbins says Nato's move is an expression of solidarity with Turkey, and a signal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad he must not widen the war against his own people beyond Syria's borders.
Syria is believed to hold chemical weapons - including mustard gas and sarin, a highly toxic nerve agent - at dozens of sites around the country.
The CIA has said those weapons "can be delivered by aircraft, ballistic missile and artillery rockets".
Khoder, 7, Salah, 7, and Yousef Khodor, 6, (left to right) collect firewood outside a former sheep shed in northern Lebanon, where they now live.
President Obama has previously warned President Assad he would face "consequences" if he used chemical weapons against his people.
A Nato team has already visited a number of sites in Turkey in preparation for the deployment of Patriot batteries, which could be used to shoot down any Syrian missiles or warplanes that stray over the border.
But analysts say any deployment - possibly supplied by the US, Germany or the Netherlands - could take weeks.
Activists say more than 40,000 people have been killed since the uprising against President Assad began in March 2011. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled the country and another 2.5 million are internally displaced.
Syrian opposition fighters have reportedly made dramatic gains recently, and several government mortar shells - aimed at rebel targets close to the border - have landed across its 900-km (560-mile) border with Turkey.

Syria's chemical weapons

  • The CIA believes Syria has had a chemical weapons programme "for years and already has a stockpile of CW agents which can be delivered by aircraft, ballistic missile, and artillery rockets"
  • Syria is believed to possess mustard gas and sarin, a highly toxic nerve agent
  • The CIA also believes that Syria has attempted to develop more toxic and more persistent nerve agents, such as VX gas
  • A report citing Turkish, Arab and Western intelligence agencies put Syria's stockpile at approximately 1,000 tonnes of chemical weapons, stored in 50 towns and cities
  • Syria has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) or ratified the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)
Sources: CSIS, RUSI
Although the head of the Arab League Nabil al-Arabi told AFP on Monday that the Syrian government could fall "any time", it still holds the capital, parts of the second city Aleppo, and other centres.
In other developments:
  • A teacher and at least 28 students were killed when shelling hit their school inside the Wafideen refugee camp outside Damascus on Tuesday - state media said it was a rebel mortar attack but rebels blamed government troops.
  • A journalist working for a state-run newspaper was killed near his home in Damascus, said state media.
  • The UN said on Monday it was pulling "all non-essential international staff" out of Syria, with as many as 25 out of 100 international staff expected to leave this week.
  • The EU has withdrawn its mission altogether - the ambassador and head of delegation Vassilis Bontosoglou left Damascus with his six remaining international staff members on Tuesday morning.
  • Syrian foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi is said to have fled the country, amid reports he has been dismissed, ostensibly for making statements out of line with government policy.

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