Turkey is turning to regional powers Iran and Russia,
backers of the Damascus regime, to help it deal with Syria’s bloody
civil war that has spilled across its border with deadly shelling and a
flood of refugees, analysts say.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the first
signs last week that Ankara may be shifting the way it approaches the
19-month conflict after holding what local media called a “surprise
meeting” with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in Baku.
Ankara has proposed to Iran establishing a set of
trilateral mechanisms involving key regional players to face the Syrian
crisis raging at their doorsteps.
“This (trilateral) mechanism might involve Turkey, Egypt
and Iran,” Erdogan said. “A second mechanism could involve Turkey,
Russia, Iran. A third could be made up of Turkey, Egypt and Saudi
Arabia.”
“This represents a significant shift in position by Ankara,” Semih Idiz wrote in the English-language Hurriyet Daily News.
“It was no more than a few months ago that Ankara looked
coolly on any discussion on Syria which involved Russia and Iran due to
their unconditional backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” he
argued.
Erdogan’s government, a one-time Assad ally, has burnt
bridges with Damascus after its deadly crackdown on popular dissent that
erupted in March last year and has turned into a civil war.
Turkey has since then provided sanctuary for some 100,000
refugees fleeing the conflict, as well as the exiled Syrian rebel and
political leadership, in camps along its volatile border.
At the same time Turkey’s parliament has approved military
action against Damascus “when deemed necessary”, shortly after Syrian
shells killed five Turks in a border town on October 3. The Turkish
military has beefed up border security with aircraft and tanks.
But in the region, Ankara’s deterrent measures have not
set well with Iran and Russia and have changed the perception of Turkey
as troublesome.
Sami Kohen, a veteran columnist of liberal daily Milliyet,
said Ankara began to seek an “exit strategy” after the policies pursued
so far by the government pushed Turkey to become a part of the problem.
“While on the one side Ankara is keeping on its policy of
showdown against Syria, on the other side it is signalling that it wants
to be involved in efforts for a peaceful solution.”
‘Has to have friends’
A Turkish foreign ministry official contacted by AFP said
Turkey has never ruled out regional initiatives, noting its support for
regional quartet talks proposed by Egypt and involving the other two key
players Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey and Iran have diverging views on the Syrian crisis
but recent weeks have seen an intensive diplomatic exchange between the
two countries, resulting in both Ankara and Tehran’s backing a ceasefire
plan floated by international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi during the Muslim
Eid al-Adha holiday starting this week.
Turkey is also talking to Russia despite a recent
diplomatic row sparked after Ankara grounded a Syria-bound plane en
route from Moscow to Damascus on suspicion that it had military cargo.
Turkey has not yet said what exactly the suspect cargo
contained, but both countries have preferred to downplay the incident,
and denied there was a crisis in their trade-based relationship.
It is however hard to predict if Turkey’s new overtures,
interpreted by some observers as a change in Turkish foreign policy
options, will have any chance of success as long as Russia and Iran
cling to their support for Assad’s regime.
Yet Turkey finds itself grasping for support over the
Syria crisis, amid criticism that the Western powers are not doing
enough to stop the bloodshed.
“Turkey has been desperate for 19 months,” Soli Ozel, a
professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Bilgi University,
said. “It doesn’t have enough strength to change the circumstances in
Syria, or to convince Syria’s allies (to find a solution), or to
convince its Western allies to stand by it.”
A new initiative to build cooperation with key regional
players may be Turkey’s way of mending fences with its neighbours over
Syria.
“I think Turkey’s leaders are rediscovering the idea of
having zero problems with neighbours,” a Western diplomat, familiar with
Ankara’s efforts, said.
“Turks have come to the conclusion that they need to do
something as regards Russia and Iran. They have realised Turkey is not
alone and even if it were a super power, Turkey has to have friends.”
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