Palestinian Center For Public Opinion

Poll No. 181 Feb. 12, 2012

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A Public Opinion Poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali
Dr. Kukali: “The people need a government that can help them to tackle their problems, not a government that expects from its people to solve its problems”.

The most important results are:
(54.7 %)  of the Palestinians are concerned about their subsistence.
(64.7 %)  oppose the recent financial policy of Salam Fayyad government and demand its revocation.
(40.0 %)  believe that the economic situation in the Palestinian territories would recess after the conclusion of the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
(65.1 %)  believe that what happens in the Arab world negatively impacts the Palestinian issue.                                 
(42.7 %)  believe that the rise of the Islamic movements in the Arab world has a positive effect on the popularity of Hamas movement.
(56.1 %)  are satisfied with the performance of President Mahmoud Abbas.
(39.0 %)  would vote in the coming elections for Fatah, (30.0 %) for Hamas.
(35.6 %)  favor Ismael Haniyyeh for the chairmanship of Hamas Politburo; (17.2 %) favor Aziz al-Duwaik, the Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council.
(24.0 %)  watch al-Arabiyyeh TV-channel, (18.7 %) watch al-Jazeera TV-channel.
(49.9 %)  would vote for Mahmoud Abbas, (29.0 %) for Khaled Mish’al.

Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office:
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from January 22 till February 4, 2012, covered a random sample of (1151) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (64.7 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the recent financial policy of Salam Fayyad government  and demand its revocation.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, President of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said in a statement that the next government is required not only to suspend working with the recent financial policy, but has to revoke it. Increasing the tax load, transferring more employees to retirement, reducing the public expenses, cancelling certain governmental departments and imposing more fees,fines and procedures on the licensing of different investment projects will certainly impair in a direct way the living and financial situation of the Palestinian citizen and would debilitate the desire for investing in the country, Dr. Kukali said. This, by its turn, would lead to a further deterioration of the economic situation and would have a negative impact on the outcome of the coming elections, because the people need a government that can help them to tackle their problems, not a government that expects from its people to solve its problems, he added.

Furthermore, in his statement Dr. Kukali mentioned that the Palestinian people view in fact the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ as the ‘Palestinian fall’, because it negatively impacts the Palestinian issue. Instead of caring more about the future of the Palestinians, the Arab regimes and their people are now concerned more than ever about their own internal situation and their domestic economic and security problems. In addition, Dr. Kukali pointed out that, notwithstanding the rise of Hamas popularity compared with previous polls, President Mahmoud Abbas still enjoys the respect, appreciation and support of the Palestinian people.

Dr. Kukali further said that the majority of the Palestinian people still support the resumption of the peace negotiations with Israel. As indication thereto, the majority were in favor of the resumption of the exploratory talks held in Amman under Jordanian custody between the Palestinian and the Israeli negotiators.

Dr. Kukali concluded his statement saying that he is observing a declination in the rate of al-Jazeera viewers to the advantage of other TV-channels.  This declination could be attributed to the growing feelings of the Palestinian citizen that al-Jazeera is no more a distinguished TV-channel, but has become an ordinary Arab TV-channel as many others, that lost their credibility and professionalism in broadcasting news and events.

The Findings:

Implementation of the reconciliation agreement:
Responding to the question:” If you look back on the past, would you say now that you are optimistic or pessimistic for the possibility of reaching the stage of  implementing the reconciliation agreement concluded between Fatah and Hamas ?”, (58.3 %) answered that they are “optimistic”, (38.6 %) “pessimistic” and (3.1 %) said “I don’t know”.

Mahmoud Abbas and Khalid Mish’al:
Regarding the question:” If new presidential elections for the Palestinian Authority would be held now and Mahmoud Abbas would run these elections for Fatah and Khalid Mish’al for Hamas, for whom would you vote ?”, (49.9 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (29.0 %) “for Khalid Mish’al”, (17.9 %) said “I didn’t decide yet” and (3.2 %) answered:” I don’t know”.

Elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council:
And on the question: “If there would be upon the approval of all presently acting political powers new elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, which of the following candidate-lists would you vote for ?”: (39.0 %) said they would vote for a list backed by Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas, (30.0 %) for a list backed by Hamas and Ismail Haniyyeh, (13.1 %) for a list backed by the Leftists and Salam Fayyad,  ( 3 .2 %) for a list backed by the Independents, (0.7 %) for a list backed by Islamic Jihad and Ramadan Shallah,  (1.7 %) said “I won’t vote for any of the above mentioned lists and would take decision in due time, whilst ( 12 .3 %) said “I wouldn’t vote”.

And in this context on the question: “If presidential and PLC-elections would be held in the next months, are you going to participate in these elections or not ?”, ( 73 .4 %) answered “Yes, I will participate”, ( 17.3 %) said “No, I will not participate” and ( 9.3 %) said “I don’t know”.

The Arab Spring:
Responding to the question:” Whilst some people in the Palestinian Territories believe that what’s happening now in the Arab world and what they call the ‘Arab spring’ is to the benefit of the Palestinian issue, others believe these events have a negative impact on the Palestinian issue, which of the two opinions is closer to your point of view ?”, (28.2 %) said “the current events in the Arab world pour into the benefit of the Palestinian issue, (65.1 %) said “the current events in the Arab world have a negative impact on the Palestinian issue” and (6.7 %) answered “I don’t know”.

And with respect to the question:” How, according to your opinion, would the rise of the Islamic tide and movements in the Arab world impact the popularity of Hamas in the coming parliamentary and presidential elections ? Would this have a positive or a negative impact on Hamas popularity ?”, (42.7 %) said “this would have a positive impact”, (27.1 %) “a negative impact”, (23.9 %) said “this would make no difference” and (6.3 %) said “I don’t know”.

Performance of the President Abu Mazin:
And regarding the question:” Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) is performing his duty as president of the Palestinian Authority ?”, (56.1 %) answered that they are “satisfied”, (3 8 .0 %) are “dissatisfied”  and ( 5.9 %) said “I don’t know”.

Chairmanship of Hamas Politburo:
Regarding the question:” Media sources mentioned that Khaled Mishal, Head of Hamas Politburo, has declared his intention not to offer himself once again as Hamas candidate for the post of the Head of Hamas Politburo for the coming leadership term, who, do you think, would be the favorite successor ?”, (4.8 %) said “Moussa Abu Marzouq”, (35.6 %) “Ismail Haniyyeh”, (2.9 %) “Hassan Youssuf”, (8.2 %) “Khalil al-Hayya”, (14.9 %) “Mahmoud al-Zahhar”, (0.6 %) “Salah al-Bardawil”, (17.2 %) “Aziz al-Duwaik”, (3.8 %) “Sami Abu-Zahra”,   (0.6 %) “others”, and (11. 4 %) said “I don’t know”.

Exploratory talks in Jordan:
Regarding the question:” Exploratory talks are held in Amman on 7/1/2012  between the Palestinian chief-negotiator, Dr. Saeb Erekat, and the Israeli envoy, Isaac Molcho, in the presence of the Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Judeh. Are you in favor of such encounters or against them ?”, (51.7 %) said they are “in favor”, (31.5 %) “against” such encounters and (16.8 %) answered “I don’t know”.

The best ways to end the occupation:
And on the question:” Which, in your opinion, is the best way to end the occupation and establish the Palestinian State ?”, (15.4 %) answered “the peace negotiations till a deal is concluded between the Palestinians and the Israelis”, (26.0 %) “the nonviolent resistance (the popular Intifada)”, (14.4 %) “the work through the United Nations”, (29.4 %) “holding an international conference that impose the solution on all parties involved “, (13.5 %) “violent actions” and      (1.3 %) said “I don’t know”.

The future peace perspective:
And on the question: “Now let’s have a look at the future when your children will become in your age. Do you think that there would be at that time peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians ?” (14.2 %) answered “definitely”, (23.1 %) “likely”, (32.9 %) “possibly”, (14.6 %) “unlikely”, (12.7 %) “certainly no”, and (2.5 %) said “I don’t know”.

The recent financial policy:
With respect to the question:” In a statement issued by the institutions of the private sector about the recent financial policies of the Palestinian government, these institutions called upon the government to revise its new financial policy and to revoke all relevant resolutions, measures and instructions in force. Do you support or oppose the content of this statement?” ( 64.7 %) answered “I support it”, ( 25.5 %) “I oppose it” and (9.8 %) said “I don’t know”.

The overall economic situation:
On the question:” How do you rate the overall economic situation in the Palestinian territories ?”, (25.4 %) answered “good”, (35.8 %) “middle”, (38.3 %) “bad” and (0. 5 %) said “I don’t know”.

Concern about own subsistence:
Regarding the question:” Up to which extent are you concerned now about the subsistence of your family ?”, (24.3 %) answered “too much concerned”, (30.4 %) “concerned”, (30.1 %) “not so much concerned”, (15.0 %) “not concerned at all”, and   (0.2 %) said “I don’t know”.

Impact of the reconciliation on the economy:
And responding to the question:” Do you believe, in general, that the economic situation in the country would improve, regress, or remain unchanged after the conclusion of the reconciliation accord between Fatah and Hamas ?”, (33.8 %) said “the economic situation would improve”, (40.0 %) “it would regress”, (25.7 %) “it would remain unchanged” and (0. 5 %) said “ I don’t know”.

The European and American assistance:
And responding to the question:” Up to which extent do you think the European and American financial assistance contribute in general to the welfare of the Palestinian people ?”, (23.9 %) said “to a great extent”, (40.5 %) “fairly”, (27.6 %) “slightly”, (7.3 %) said “nil”, and (0. 7 %) said “I don’t know”.

The citizen’s main concern:
And responding to the question:” What is your main concern at present ?”, (39.6 %) answered “the job / the money”, (22.4 %) “the security”, (14.3 %) “the health” and (23.7 %) “the future”.

Self-content with own life:
And lastly responding to the question:” Given a scale of self-content between (1) and (10) grades where (1) stands for “extremely discontent” and (10) for “extremely content”, where would you stand on this scale ?”, the result was –as an arithmetic average – (4.77) at a standard deviation of (2.2) grades. This means that the Palestinian public is generally discontent with their lives.

Personal security:
Regarding the question: “ Up to which extent are you worried about your personal security ?”, (22.9 %) said “too much worried”, (35.6 %) “worried”, (24.5 %) “not so much worried”, (16.8 %) “not worried at all”, and (0.2 %) answered:”I don’t know”.

The TV-channels:
On the question:” Which TV-channel you prefer to watch the news broadcast on ?”, (24.0 %) said “al-Arabiyyeh TV”, (18.7 %) “al-Jazeera TV”, (15.3 %) “Palestine TV”, (13.9 %) “al-Aqsa TV”, (11.1 %) “Manar TV”, (10.7 %) “MBC” and (6.3 %) said “I watch other TV-channels”.

Optimism and Pessimism:
With respect to the question:”In view of the political and economic situations prevailing in the Palestinian territories these days, do you feel optimistic or pessimistic for the future ?”, (41.3 %) said  they feel “optimistic”, (56.3 %) “pessimistic” and (2. 4 %) said “I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of ( 160 ) election sites, from which ( 120 ) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology.

Mr. Elias Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (± 2.88 %) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49. 6 %) against (50. 4 %) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was ( 63.2 %) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and ( 36.8 %) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (5 1 . 9 %) for the towns, (31. 8 %) for the villages and (16.2%) for the camps.