Obama in a second term: Is there anything new?

                 
Obama in a second term: Is there anything new?
Wednesday, November 22, 1433 - November 7, 2012

Author:


Tariq Osman
Introduction: the expiry on Tuesday, the sixth of November / November 2012, the journey was the electoral process U.S. presidential long had nearly finished; where it is known from the chosen American people governed, so are his inauguration officially on January 20 / December 2013, which in this case President Previous "Barack Obama", and at the expense of rival Republican "Mitt Romney."

Come of Obama's second term under a package of variables on more than one level: At the domestic level: there is an economic crisis plaguing the United States, and Europe in general since the year 2009 (an increase of public debt, increased unemployment rates).

At the international level: there is resolving in a unipolar international system; where witnessing the international system decline in U.S. hegemony in the international system (1), in light of the rise of major powers (China, Russia to some degree), as well as the rise of regional powers (powers medium) such as Brazil and Turkey (2).
With regard to the regional level: there variables significant in the Middle East, is the wave of revolutions that swept the region, starting with Tunisia at the end of the year 2010, and to Syria until the ends of the year 2012, through Egypt, Yemen, and Pia, and termed it "Arab Spring" ( 3), and what emerged from these revolutions of the fall of allied systems, and the rise of new systems, mostly belong to the Islamic movements (especially Muslim Brotherhood).
This paper attempts to anticipate the nature of the changes that can occur to the foreign policy of the second Obama administration in general, and focus Aelloukh on policy towards the Middle East in particular. After offering an analysis of Obama's victory, and outlines of Obama's foreign policy especially towards the countries of the Arab Spring.
First: Obama's victory: semi-unexpected result
Although the case of uncertainty that prevailed electoral scene American, regarding who will win the Oval Office; because polls numerous, which were confirmed throughout the election year, and until Tuesday, which voted it Alomrakon to choose their president, convergence rates both candidates: But Obama's victory to be almost expected, and for reasons of the U.S. presidential election environment generally, and for reasons of the current global situation, for reasons of both candidates personality, as follows:
- With respect to a presidential election environment, gives Alomrakon usually vote for president at its second session, in order to avoid an adventure with a new president did not tell him yet. There are special cases forced the Americans to abandon their president: those where there is visible and strong influence, either internally or externally. Example:
. All the U.S. embassy in Iran 1979 remote Iranian revolution, in what is known crisis hostages, (4) may ousted Democrat Jimmy Carter, to win his Republican rival Reagan, as deficit Carter address the crisis diplomatically and militarily, The impact on his popularity, and his wife the people staying in the White House for a second term. While Reagan won, and the captives released officially on the day of his inauguration in 20/01/1981.
. Economic crisis that toppled President Bush, in the 1992 elections, to beat Bill Clinton, who raised the slogan "It's the economy, stupid!"
And it did not get things like this in Obama's first term (5), and then it was only natural that the Americans do not punish him and get him from the Oval Office.
- With respect to the internal situation of the United States, as well as put the present world order, as well as the features of both Obama and Romney, Obama seems more appropriate and acceptable than Romney:
. Despite the heavy legacy inherited by Obama from his predecessor, George W. Bush, but his performance on the level of internal and external was not bad; Internally gave Obama a priority for the affair economic, especially the issue of health care, despite the economic crisis since 2009, but that Obama's policies have maintained things away from collapse.
. In contrast, Romney coming from the world of business adopts a radical stance of the poor and the middle class (6). And the American people means the internal affairs of (unemployment, health care, abortion, gay rights, ...) more of his attention to foreign policy (unless there is effective as noted above).
. Romney merely criticizing Obama's policies, but did not provide an alternative that makes the American people of his choice, especially with regard to economic affairs.
. With regard to the matter outside, has sought Obama to withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and succeeded in the assassination of the required first to the United States, talking about Sheikh Osama bin Laden, as well as able to adapt with the changes of the Arab Spring, did not produce his policies towards the countries of the region ضر United States. And then At Obama external level did not cause any damage to the country, but we can say that he has achieved some accomplishment.
. As well as the nature of Obama harmonic, and his preference for cooperation with other international powers to conflict with, and does not want to increase the size of intervention in foreign affairs, make it acceptable public at the international level compared Bromena who adopted speech election where a high degree of extremism (7), due to its proximity to the lobby Jewish (AIPAC), as well as proximity to the neo-conservatives. (8) which is reflected on the internal and nines.
And it Vtkon determinants of the American people in the electoral choices internal, not external, and in view of the features of both Obama and Romney, it was natural to choose Obama at the expense of Romney.
Second: Obama in the first period: cooperation and adaptation:
President Obama came to the White House in 2008, at a time when the image of the United States are appalling, especially in the Middle East, because of the practices of the extremist Bush, and that led him to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It was then the responsibility of Obama address the damage caused by Bush's policies in the United States. Obama has already sought in this way as much as allowed by U.S. interests in the region, and the nature of the American decision-making. (9)
In general has characterized the foreign policy of the Obama administration, being cooperative policy with the rest of the major powers in the international system (China and Russia), as well as the policy sought to reduce U.S. intervention around the world, and with regard to the Middle East have tried the Obama administration:
. Revive the peace process the Palestinian - Israeli, but the management of the right-wing Netanyahu did not help him in this way, which led him to cool his efforts to activate the peace process.
. Entrench the principle of diplomatic negotiation with Iran over its nuclear program, avoiding her pursuit of the battlefield, struggling Israeli pressure on him, except to tighten sanctions on Iran, through the United Nations and the European Union.
For the events of the Arab Spring has been the Obama administration's policy towards the State as follows:
Obama administration has dealt with the Arab Spring, a high degree of pragmatism, in order to adapt to the new reality, in a manner that preserves its interests in the region, after US-Arab peoples authoritarian systems of governance, strong relations with America, and ensure its vital interests in the region. This pragmatism has been manifested as follows:
- The United States decided to succumb to the wave of change, and deal with it as an inevitable reality, then it should not resist, but must adopt the option of supporting democracy, and stands in peoples Almentvdh row (for the purpose of keeping its interests in the first place). This decision was after some confusion in attitudes, in the case of Tunisia and Egypt, but after the uncertainty of the option fails to support the regime of Ben Ali, Mubarak, decided to abandon them completely, and called on them to leave.
- In the Libyan case it turned into a war already, and the United States supported military intervention, under the cover of the United Nations and NATO, so that the Gaddafi regime falls.
- In the case of Yemen, the United States supported the transition of power, according to a certain formula (the Gulf initiative), but I left provided the scene for the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia).
- In the Syrian case, U.S. administration has adopted Cassapekayaa option departure of President Assad, but they were not possess the mechanisms of political interference and military, enabling them to facilitate the process of stepping down this, and because of the complexities of regional and international surrounding the issue of Syria (supporting both Russia and behind China , then Iran to the Assad regime).

Overall we can say that the Obama administration, have embraced the option of supporting democratization processes in countries Arab Spring, and I accepted the new political forces, which were mostly Islamic-oriented;, winning the Muslim Brotherhood candidate (Mohamed Morsi) first free presidential elections in Egypt, as well as the party freedom and justice, the political arm of the group, retains control of the political scene.
Not to mention the political rise of Salafi in Almapad environment revolutionary Egypt. As well as in Tunisia topping Renaissance Movement political scene, and to share power with the secular parties (head of government - Hamadi Jebali of the Renaissance, and Tunisian President - Moncef Marzouki from outside). In Yemen Brotherhood controls the Rally for the most important reform of the political entity, and the form of Salafi political party. In Libya there is a strong community presence of the Islamists, but has not translated into a strong political presence.
Obama administration did not show any hostile positions before this Islamic boarding, which represents the biggest challenge, in front of the U.S. strategy in the region. Conversely continued with these new powers and supported politically and economically.
Even when an event of countries Arab spring, necessitating anger the U.S. administration did not issue them reactions tense and violent, did not change the nature of its relationship with these countries and most notable events: first: the issue of civil society organizations in Egypt, which he almost tried them 19 foreigners, five of them Americans, led by Sam Lahoud and U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, for the fact that the case has been settled one way or another.
The second: when he killed the American ambassador in the United States to Biya, and was attacked embassies in many Arab countries, following the showing of the film in which abuse of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) in September 2012, in the United States, not the United States with no response hostile act towards the countries of the Arab Spring (but there was pressure from the U.S. Congress to stop economic aid to Egypt).
Thus, in total, the Obama administration has maintained a balanced and cooperative relationship with the countries of the Arab Spring, since the revolutions, and to the present time.
Third: Obama in a new period: the limits of change:
After the inauguration of President Obama officially on January 21, 2013 (10) Will foreign policies, especially toward the Middle East?
Take for granted that the U.S. President in his second term to be more liberal than the pressure, being his last term, and then be bolder decisions than it was in the first period. Thus we can anticipate changes that can get in the policies of Obama, a dilute these pressures as follows:
1 - foreign policy
- Is likely to continue the policy of inwardness opposed to foreign intervention. In contrast, will give priority to internal affair (the economy)
- President Obama will be more open to Russia than it is today, for the purpose of containing and avoid a clash with them.
- Will increase management's attention in China and Asia in general, politically and militarily, (11) and at the expense of attention to the Middle East (relatively), and will be keen to make the cooperative relations with China more competitive.
2 - policy toward the Middle East
Is likely to be the course of foreign policy towards the Arab Spring as follows:
- Will be the behavior of the new Islamic leaders in the countries of the Arab Spring, a specific U.S. policies towards it, and what those forces were preoccupied with domestic policy, for the short and medium term, will not be issued by the behavior of external political concern to the United States.
- And it will maintain the Obama administration on the cooperative relationship with states Arab Spring, and in particular Egypt as it represents the importance, will help in the economic support it so stabilize the internal situation, in turn, is waiting for the Egyptian political leadership, to affirm in word and deed on its commitment to peace with Israel. On the other hand, will focus on the United States the extent of the Muslim Brotherhood's commitment to the principles of democratic pluralism, protection of minorities (the Copts), and freedom of expression.
- Are also likely to develop the U.S. position toward Syria, فتبذل broader support of that effort currently the Syrian opposition to topple Assad, or encourage military intervention in Syria, under the cover of Arab or internationalist if able pressure on Russia and China, to change their positions in support of a lion.
- With regard to the peace process the Israeli - Palestinian, are likely to exercise Obama pressure more on Netanyahu, in order to ease the peace process, but is unlikely to respond Netanyahu smoothly to these pressures, and then will be the U.S. administration is keen to draw strength Netanyahu in the Israeli political scene , support political forces that belong to the middle or the left (Mofaz - Livni) in early elections in January 2013, for the purpose of being able to push the peace process forward. (12)
- With respect to Iran Vsihrr Obama pressure Israel in order to draw a military strike against Iran, in order to deter them from acquiring nuclear weapons. But on the other hand Obama will increase pressure on Iran by tightening sanctions, while keeping the threat of military action against it stick, to push it to sit at the negotiating table with the West.
Conclusion:
I tried paper that provides an analysis of Obama's victory in the presidential election, also made a presentation to outline the foreign policy of the Obama administration in his first term, especially towards the Middle East and the Arab Spring, and then sought to explore changes that may occur with this policy. At the end of the analysis can emphasize:
- Obama will be a priority of internal affairs, in order to address the problems resulting from the economic crisis.
- Obama will work to establish the principle of non-interference outside the U.S., though got Vchristrs to be under the cover of the United Nations, and has the largest amount of global support.
- Obama will be keen to consolidate cooperation with both Russia and China, avoiding what could strain U.S. relations with them.
- Despite Obama's intention to achieve something in the path of the peace process between Israel and Palestine, but expect to get great results is something that needs to a lot of humility, especially in light of Netanyahu's right-leaning government.
- Is likely to increase the size of the U.S. intervention in Syria for the purpose of political overthrow Assad, to provide more financial support / military rebels, and to work to unify the political opposition. But still the option of military intervention steel option away, especially in light of the position of Russia and China. Though it will be under the cover of a global (as a case of Libya).
- Obama will avoid getting involved in a war with Iran, on the short and medium term, but in the long run can happen if you do not produce sanctions and negotiations.
- Obama will maintain a cooperative relationship with Egypt, but in return will be watching the behavior of the Muslim Brotherhood political with regard to respect for the principles of democracy. As well as with regard to the relationship with Israel. And it remains a paper economic aid, and control in the International Monetary Fund raised his hand in order to affect the policy of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Footnotes:
1 There is academic debate vociferously about the strength of the United States in the current international system, there is of the opinion that the American hegemony in decline, and that the unipolar world under disintegration, and theorists for this: Charles Kupchan researcher first Council on Foreign Relations, writing in the "world not owned by a "as well as a political science professor," Robert Keohane "in the article" Malate U.S. leadership of the international system, in the journal "Foreign Affairs" prestigious. At the opposite direction there who refuse sayings undo U.S., and confirms the survival of the United States Mtsidh of the international system, perhaps most notably: "Robert Kagan "researcher at Brookings, in his book" The world she created America. "
There are 2 Tratibih states in the international system, based on the extent of the power of the state (solid, soft) there: great powers, major powers, medium powers, regional powers, powers secondary, and minor powers.
3 First to use this term to express these revolutions: Professor of Political Science, "Marc Lynch," in an article the magazine "Foreign Policy" in 12/2010, then use the term a lot of media centers and research, Arab and foreign, a term borrowed from the revolutions that have passed Europe in the year 1848.
4 Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 employees for a period of 444 days (04.11.1979 - 20.01.1981) was the cause of the crisis cut rations between Iran and America, to continue the boycott to present.
5 forbid crisis Movie abuser of the Prophet peace be upon him and that killed the American ambassador in Biya, and stormed the embassies of America in more than one place in the Islamic world. But the Obama administration has dealt gently and unhurried with the situation, which was not reflected negatively on his popularity.
6 of the Nsrib video of Romney during the campaign Athecm poor people and he describes Palmttaflin government Almatdmedin.
Obama was 7 Athecm extremism Romney in his foreign policy, saying: Mr. Romney then shoots pointing after that! "
8 for more about them, see: Abdul Hafeez, Ala, new conservative ideology in the United States, Cairo: International Center for Future Studies, 2006.
9 suspended the Arab peoples hopes on Obama, especially some of his speech at Cairo University, Mtanasean nature of U.S. interests and the nature of the American decision-making.
10 Promised official inauguration is 20/1 but would agree one day and then be delayed one day.
11 new American strategy in 2011 focused on the presence in the Pacific.
12 There are leaks stating that the file peace Israeli - Palestinian served by former President Bill Clinton.
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